Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Barack Obama Is Going to Win

I've written this more or less several times over the last year, but I don't remember saying it this bluntly. Barack Obama is going to win re-election. Mitt Romney is going to lose the electoral vote and badly.

Over in The Atlantic James Fallows wrote "Mitt Romney Drops His 3:00am Phone Call." This is the infamous "it's the White House and it's 3:00am and the phone rings" scenario. The author surmises that the embassy attacks in the Middle East represents a showing of Romney at 3:00am. The Obama response was to act rationally and state justice will be done and to look for more information so as to have a considered approach. Fallows writes of the Romney response:
When he first heard about the violence and protests last night, he rushed to condemn the administration before anyone knew fully what was going on. After he had had a few hours to think, he dug himself in far deeper with a graceless press conference whose dominant theme was partisan criticism of the administration.

In short, when faced with a 3 a.m. test, he reacted immediately, rather than having the instinct to wait. And after he waited, he mistook this as a moment for partisanship rather than for at least the appearance of statesmanlike national unity.
So that's it. 3:00am comes and Romney acts without gathering information and blow up the situation. This isn't a man you want on that call.

So far Wall Street has been funding Romney heavily and pretty much telling President Obama to kiss their collective ass. He had the audacity to tell them they acted badly! Well, Wall Street is going to quickly realize who is going to win this and will start pumping money into the Obama campaign because they have to make nice before the election. At that point the Romney money will dry up. Oh, there will still be some rich people funding him, but it won't be the deep pockets on Wall Street. They are smart enough to understand what the return on investment is and doubling down on a bad investment isn't going to happen.

And here's another important point about Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average. It's doing great under President Obama. Plunged off the cliff in 2008 right before President Obama took office and then climbed right back to the peak just before the recession. The stock market is doing just fine under President Obama. Here's the chart:


JCSinSC said...

Stock prices are back to the pre electin baseline - NOT "doubled". This is largely due to companies shedding jobs (I.e. expenses) and booking the increased savings to their EPS which is driving the stock price. This is also combined with the ongoing weak dollar policy of the Fed which is driving foreign sales. nice try...but I am not buying your "Obama" argument.

Jim G said...

People invest in the stock market because they expect a positive return on investment in the next six to twelve months. An increase in the overall stock market indicates the investor class are expecting continued improvement in the business climate and increase profits and return on investment in the next six months. The stock market is a leading indicator of economic performance since institutional investors have huge research departments and economists on staff to help make decisions. So you don't have to accept it, but the stock market likes President Obama's term. They are optimistic about the economy's future performance. Like it or don't. It's true.